Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Hurricane butterflies

The wind patterns shown in this website are things of beauty. I love to imagine the flows sweeping me across the oceans: freedom and open vistas! Of course, there are times when little details focus attention: the current one is a counter-clockwise vortex sweeping across the ocean like giant tornado. Here is a screenshot of tomorrow afternoon's forecast:
Coral Bay is above and slightly left of the C in "Christianstead". Anegada hides in the yellow around the eye...
 Hurricane Irma bears down upon the Virgin Islands as a category 5. The boat I own, boats of friends, homes of friends, and lives of friends hang by threads, often almost literally (if you consider mooring and anchor lines as threads). Current forecast has the hurricane passing to the north, but has Dorado, sitting on mooring, experiencing winds of 85mph for four hours tomorrow afternoon and evening. Will it still be on the mooring in the morning light?

If I were still there I might have set sail a few days ago and just sailed south, far from the path of the storm, or south to Christianstead where the winds should not exceed 40mph. If my friends did not have their hurricane dance cards filled, perhaps they could have put it in a safer place....although those are mostly completely full and the forecast winds are not the best for those hurricane holes... so, my mooring line may be better than being anchored in a hurricane hole.

All I can do is ask for my extra anchors to be set (Dickie says he will do it if he has the time) and cross fingers. The forecast winds should not bring big waves into the harbor, so any boats that break free SHOULD be fairly simple to pull free as long as the storm surge does not put them high and dry.

The islands a hundred miles farther east are already feeling winds of 175mph. Tomorrow Anegada, flat and unprotected, will get hit almost directly... perhaps the few hundred residents can go to different islands or find a bunker, but I fear for them if there is a big storm surge as the island is only 28' at highest point.

OK, everyone! Find something solid and hold on! Good luck! See you all on the other side!

9:40am September 6: update: webcams & weather stations all seem to be down. Well, I guess I can't watch minute by minute.... and will probably be the better for it.

12 comments:

  1. Dustin we are praying for you and your mooring line!!

    David Janet and Scout

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  2. Sending positive thoughts to Coral Bay!

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    1. No! That's like wishing an actor "good luck"! It will probably cause the storm to swoop right down and hit us directly!

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  3. Hope Irma blows the other way!

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    1. It will not, but, curiously, it COULD undergo something called a "ringwall replacement" in which it essentially collapses for a day or so while continuing on the same course. We had a hurricane come through a couple years back that had forecast winds of 70 and actual winds under 10mph...

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  4. Insurance covers these things...yes? We just had family dealing with this in Galveston.

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    1. Typically insurance is either prohibitively expensive or has a clause requiring you to store your boat south of the hurricane line for the season. So, I go uncovered...
      Anyway, I've put in about $20k in for four years of fun... not too bad. And I figure I have a 90% chance that all will be fine. I am a bit unhappy about putting in that last $7k this spring... perhaps tempting Murphy too much?
      When I get my next, more expensive, boat, it will spend the season under my feet so I can sail it out of harm's way. I'm thinking Maine, then get back to the islands sometime in late November each year...

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    2. Another way to look at it is that I MAY have been able to sell the boat for $10k, insurance probably would have cost me $3k/year (=$12k for 4 years... and probably not covered hurricanes)... so I am ahead in my book.

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  5. Yikes I am nervous for you. Love your attitude though.

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    1. Thanks. I feel for a friend who just brought his boat from Cape Cod to Puerto Rico in August...

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